Estimates of excess deaths can provide information about the burden of mortality potentially related to COVID-19, beyond the number of deaths that are directly attributed to COVID-19. Excess deaths are typically defined as the difference between observed numbers of deaths and expected numbers. This visualization provides weekly data on excess deaths by jurisdiction of occurrence. Counts of deaths in more recent weeks are compared with historical trends to determine whether the number of deaths is significantly higher than expected.
Estimates of excess deaths can be calculated in a variety of ways, and will vary depending on the methodology and assumptions about how many deaths are expected to occur. Estimates of excess deaths presented in this webpage were calculated using Farrington surveillance algorithms (1). For each jurisdiction, a model is used to generate a set of expected counts, and the upper bound of the 95% Confidence Intervals (95% CI) of these expected counts is used as a threshold to estimate excess deaths. Observed counts are compared to these upper bound estimates to determine whether a significant increase in deaths has occurred. Provisional counts are weighted to account for potential underreporting in the most recent weeks. However, data for the most recent week(s) are still likely to be incomplete. Only about 60% of deaths are reported within 10 days of the date of death, and there is considerable variation by jurisdiction. More detail about the methods, weighting, data, and limitations can be found in the Technical Notes.
This visualization provides weekly data on the number of deaths from all causes by jurisdiction of occurrence and age group. Counts of deaths in more recent weeks can be compared with counts from earlier years to determine if the number is higher than expected.
County data on race and Hispanic origin is available for counties with more than 100 COVID-19 deaths. Urban-rural classification is based on the 2013 National Center for Health Statistics Urban-Rural Classification Scheme for Counties (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data_access/urban_rural.htm). Deaths are cumulative from the week ending January 4, 2020 to the most recent reporting week.
Provisional counts of deaths by the week the deaths occurred, by state of occurrence, and by select underlying causes of death for 2020-2021. The dataset also includes weekly provisional counts of death for COVID-19, coded to ICD-10 code U07.1 as an underlying or multiple cause of death.
This visualization provides weekly data on the number of deaths from all causes by jurisdiction of occurrence and race and Hispanic origin. Numbers of deaths are also shown for all causes excluding COVID-19, and for COVID-19. Counts of deaths in more recent weeks can be compared with counts from earlier years to determine if the number is higher than expected.